The Impacts of COVID‐19 on Migrants, Remittances, and Poverty in China: A Microsimulation Analysis

Chinese migrant workers are very exposed to the shocks caused by COVID-19 pandemic. Falling remittances adversely affect their families who rely on remittance incomes. The impacts of migrants and remittance-receiving households assessed using a nationally representative household dataset microsimulation model. We found about 70 percent lost part wage income during pandemic lockdown period rural working in small medium enterprises were affected most. This led 50 being falling remittances, average decline such was more than 45 percent. Nearly 13 pre-pandemic nonpoor could fall into poverty, raising poverty rate among 4 percentage points. Many that poor prior became impoverished. results indicate social protection programs targeting vulnerable at home important.